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Dalton Kincaid owns the potential to help a lot of fantasy football mangers win their leagues this fall as his role in the Buffalo Bills offense continues to grow. Concerns Kincaid could face competition for playing time from Dawson Knox and, to a lesser extent, Quintin Morris are overblown. He’s a budding superstar who’s in perfect position to take advantage of the team’s questions at wide receiver. Emerging as the new No. 1 target for quarterback Josh Allen is going to make someone a fantasy stud this season. Kincaid is the best bet in Buffalo.
The strength of Kincaid’s rookie season was overlooked because of his low touchdown total (two). Longtime fantasy owners know finding the end zone typically fluctuates from year to year. It’s possible the 24-year-old Nevada native pushes toward double-digit TDs in 2024. Otherwise, the tight end exceeded expectations in his debut campaign. He recorded 73 catches for 673 yards for a Bills squad that’s typically cautious with first-year players. The fact he was trusted with such a large role right away speaks to his immense upside.
Bills Tight Ends 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Running back James Cook is a perfect example. He possessed similar game-breaking ability coming out of the draft in 2022, but it wasn’t until his second season Buffalo’s coaching staff truly let him loose. Now he’s one of fantasy football’s top rushers. Kincaid finished eighth in targets (91) among tight ends last season. That was before the Bills offense saw the departures of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They accounted for 241 targets in 2023, and now those looks from Allen will be redistributed elsewhere.
His fantasy value is aided by the fact his current average draft position is 60.7, according to Yahoo Sports. That translates to the early sixth round in 12-team leagues. So you can get him three full rounds after the position’s top players (Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce). All told, Kincaid, at his current ADP, is one of the best values of fantasy football draft season, especially in PPR leagues. He should be the top target on one of the NFL’s best offenses. Draft him with confidence.
Knox looked like a star in the making when he caught nine touchdowns in 2021. He could never build off that success, though. His drop problems in particular are a key reason the Bills decided to invest heavily in Kincaid during the 2023 draft. Now he’s facing a crucial season as it relates to his future. His salary-cap hit in 2025 will jump to $14.1 million, per OverTheCap. That’s too much for a No. 2 tight end, so he’ll likely have to decide between accepting a pay cut in Buffalo or hitting free agency. His play this year will likely determine that outcome.
It’s possible the Bills use more 2-TE sets to offset their question marks at wide receiver. Even in that scenario, however, it’s hard to see Knox putting up consistent fantasy numbers. Kincaid is too valuable to take off the field, and he’ll dominate the target share.
Knox isn’t completely off the fantasy radar. He could carry should value in deeper leagues, particularly those that may weigh touchdowns more heavily, and he’ll obviously enter the general fantasy conversation if Kincaid misses any time with injury. In turn, neither Knox or Morris should be rostered in standard leagues at the outset. Morris won’t have any fantasy value unless both Knox and Kincaid are sidelined.
Main Image: Jamie Germano – USA Today Sports